Here is my very uneducated guess...
So I guess we will see. Do I get anything if I am right? 3/5?
p.s. Keep in mind that the above list represents who I think will get nominated. As for who I think should get nominated, I haven't listened to enough artists on the longlist to say for sure. Hayden is probably who I will be rooting for, though, as I think he is a careful, lovely and painfully underlauded genius.